Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Jun 17 2022 - 12Z Sun Jun 19 2022

...Father's Day weekend coming in hot off the grill for dads in the
Heartland & South as sizzling heat & humidity persist; "Cool" dads in the
Northeast & along the West Coast courtesy of abnormally cool
temperatures...

...Approaching cold front to ignite scattered showers & storms from the
Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast coast Friday, stormy in Florida on
Saturday; Upper trough to generate showers &storms in the Northwest...

...Early season monsoonal t-storms over parts of the Central/Southern
Rockies & Southwest; A Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Great Basin into the Southwest both Friday & Saturday...

The weather pattern for Father's Day weekend features a highly amplified
jet stream pattern with a pair of anomalous upper troughs setting up shop
over the West Coast and Northeast. Sandwiched in between is a building
heat dome in the form of an upper level ridge over the Nation's Heartland
and extending on south to the Gulf Coast. The hottest temperatures versus
normal over the weekend will be situated in the Northern and Central
Plains where daytime highs will range between 20-30 degrees above normal
and record breaking heat is expected. Record heat is also possible in the
Southeast and along the Mid-Atlantic coast today where daytime highs from
the mid-90s to right around the century mark are forecast. Combined with
dew points as high as the low 70s in parts of the Southeast, steamy heat
indices will soar as high as 110 degrees. Heat Advisories have been issued
for these areas that are forecast to see heat indices between 100-110
degrees today. By Saturday, triple digit high temps become focused along
the Gulf Coast and in the Northern and Central Plains. In contrast, the
pair of aforementioned troughs will keep temperatures seasonably cool in
the Northeast and along the West Coast. In fact, by Saturday some parts of
the Pacific Northwest and northern New England will struggle to get above
60 degrees! These upper troughs linger into Father's Day, forcing
temperatures to remain cooler and more comfortable for dads along the West
Coast and into the Northeast. Meanwhile, the stifling heat looks to stick
around in the Heartland on Father's Day.

Father's Day weekend does look to be stormy for a handful of regions
across the Lower 48. Starting in the East, a cold front tracking through
the Mid-Atlantic and into the Mid-South today will be responsible for
producing areas of showers and thunderstorms from the Middle Mississippi
Valley to the Southeast. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight
Risk for severe storms from the southern Appalachians to the Southeast
coast. There is also a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall from southwest
Virginia and northwest North Carolina to eastern Kentucky and Tennessee
where thunderstorms may cause flash flooding. To the north, a passing
occluded front may also produce some strong-to-severe storms from New
England on down along I-95 to the northern DelMarVa Peninsula. Farther
west, a lifting frontal system in the northern Plains will foster an
environment for developing thunderstorms this afternoon. The Northern
Rockies may also see strong storms form, thanks to the upper trough coming
ashore along the Pacific Northwest coast. Pop-up showers and storms remain
in the forecast across parts of the Northern Rockies and Plains on
Saturday as the upper trough tracks farther inland. There is a Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall in parts of the interior Northwest where
localized flash flooding is possible. Meanwhile, the front surging south
across the Southeast is set to help trigger additional heavy thunderstorms
in Florida and parts of the Gulf Coast. Excessive Rainfall may lead to
localized flash flooding potential, prompting the issuance of a Marginal
Risk for central Florida.

In the Southwest, early season monsoonal moisture will work its way north
from Arizona and New Mexico on north into the central Rockies. Throughout
Father's Day weekend, daily rounds of diurnally driven thunderstorms
tapping into anomalous atmospheric moisture levels will result in potent
thunderstorms that contain heavy rainfall rates. Flash flooding is
possible in these parts of the Southwest and into the southern/central
Rockies, which has prompted the issuance of daily Marginal Risks for
Excessive Rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center each day this
weekend. Areas most prone to flash flooding are near residual burn scars
across the Four Corners region on north into southern Wyoming. Meanwhile,
some thunderstorms may not contain much of any rainfall in parts of the
Great Basin, resulting in dry thunderstorms. These storms could ignite
other wildfires in parts of southwest Wyoming, eastern Utah, and into the
heart of the Four Corners region. There is a Critical Risk for fire
weather in the central Great Basin on south into the Lower Colorado River
Valley today, as well as an Elevated Risk in the central High Plains. The
same threat areas are expected to continue (Critical risk in the Great
Basin, Elevated Risk in the central High Plains) as strong winds, low
humidity levels, and dry fuels are forecast to last into the first half of
the weekend.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php