Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 15 2022 - 00Z Sun Jul 17 2022

...Heat to continue across much of the Central and Western States...

..A Fire Weather Threat across portions of the Great Basin and Central
Plains...

..Heavy Rains and isolated Flash Flooding possible along the Central Gulf
Coast into the Southeast, across the Upper Mississippi Valley and from the
Southwest into the Great Basin and Southern Rockies...

The persistent upper level closed high that has been parked across the
Southern Plains into the Southwest over the past week, will become
centered farther to the west in the vicinity of the Four Corners region
for the end of this week.  This upper high has been responsible for
numerous record high temperatures from this past weekend into this week
across the south central U.S., especially over central to eastern portions
of Texas.  With the westward shift to the center of this upper high, the
number of record high temperatures will decrease significantly over the
next few days across the Southern Plains.  However, temperatures will
still remain much above average for the end of this week across much of
the Central to Western U.S.  Areas of Central to Eastern Texas that have
experienced record heat recently, have also had a streak of 100 degree
plus high temperatures.  While the potential for record highs over the
next few days is decreasing, the 100 degree plus high temperature streak
will likely continue through the end of this week and into next week. 
Several Texas cities, including Dallas, San Antonio and Abilene have seen
100 degree plus highs for the past week and a half.  Heat advisories are
currently in effect across large sections of the Plains and will likely to
continue so going into the end of this week.  Heat Advisories and
Excessive Heat Warnings are also in effect over portions of the Great
Basin and Southeast California.

On the western side of the Four Corners Upper High, above average moisture
values will stream northward across the Southwest and into portions of the
Great Basin and Southern Rockies.  This will support the potential for
widespread scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms over the next few
days, along with potential for flash flooding.   Away from this above
average moisture axis, dry conditions expected to persist across the
western portions of the Great Basin where a fire weather threat will
continue over the next few days.  Dry conditions also over portions of the
Central Plains will support an increased fire weather threat here also.

While much of the Central to Western U.S. will continue to see much above
average temperatures, cooler than average temperatures are possible along
the Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast.  This will due to a continued
wet weather pattern for this portion of the nation where additional
widespread thunderstorms are expected. This region has been wet over the
past several weeks with rainfall totals 200-300% above average.  With
additional areas of heavy rain likely over the next two days, the areas
that have received much above average precipitation recently will have an
increased threat of flash flooding.  Areas from the Upper Mississippi
Valley toward the western Great Lakes will also see a heavy rain and flash
flooding threat, along with the threat of severe weather Thursday night
into Friday.

Oravec


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php