Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
105 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Jul 15 2022 - 12Z Sun Jul 17 2022

...Heat to continue across much of the Central and Western States...

...Heavy rains and possible flash flooding for portions of the
Intermountain West and Gulf Coast region...

One of the main things making weather headlines to close out the week and
going into the weekend are the continued above normal temperatures across
much of the central U.S. as a stubborn upper ridge remains nearly anchored
in place across the western High Plains and Rockies region.  This has
resulted in widespread 90s and 100s for highs across the central and
southern Plains, and the heat wave will continue going into the weekend
with heat advisories in effect across much of Kansas and into northern
Oklahoma.  There may be temporary relief with some isolated showers and
storms, but otherwise hot and sunny conditions should prevail.  Excessive
heat is also expected for the lower elevations of the Desert Southwest
with some 110s for highs across eastern California and into southern
Nevada and Arizona.

On the western side of the aforementioned upper high, monsoonal moisture
is expected to advect northward across much of the Southwest and into
portions of the Great Basin and Southern Rockies over the next few days. 
As a result, scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms are
likely to develop during the afternoon and evening hours, along with
potential for flash flooding in vulnerable locations.  Elsewhere across
the western U.S., expect dry conditions across the western portions of the
Great Basin where a fire weather threat will continue over the next few
days.  Dry conditions can also be expected along the West Coast region.

While much of the Central to Western U.S. will continue to see hot
conditions, slightly below average readings for highs are likely from the
Central Gulf Coast into much of the Southeast.  This is owing to a
continued overall wet pattern for this part of the nation with widespread
showers and thunderstorms expected under mostly cloudy skies.  Much of
this region has already observed above average rainfall for the month of
July thus far.  With additional areas of heavy rain likely through Sunday,
there will be the potential for instances of flash flooding.  There will
also be the potential for heavy rain across portions of the Midwest on
Friday as clusters of storms organize and track southeastward.

Hamrick


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php