Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Jul 18 2022 - 12Z Wed Jul 20 2022

...Dangerous and record-breaking heat to impact much of the Great Plains
and portions of the Mississippi Valley...

...Severe thunderstorms likely across portions of northeastern Montana and
northern North Dakota today...

...Heavy rain with isolated to scattered flash flooding possible from the
Ohio and Tennessee valleys to the Northeast today...

Dangerous heat will continue to impact much of the central and parts of
southwestern U.S. today.  Nearly 35 million people remain under excessive
heat warnings or heat advisories.  These areas include large portions of
the Great Plains and adjacent parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and
Upper Midwest.  Well above-normal to record-breaking heat is expected
throughout much of the central U.S., as well as parts of the southwestern
U.S., with daytime temperatures climbing above 100 degrees in many
locations.  While a strong cold front pushing east of the northern Rockies
is expected to provide portions of the northern Plains a break from the
heat, the oppressive heat is forecast to persist elsewhere on Tuesday,
with above-normal to record-breaking temperatures expected through midweek
across much of Texas and Oklahoma into Arkansas and Louisiana.

As the previously noted front moves east of the Rockies, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the boundary. 
Large hail and potentially very strong winds are expected with these
storms as they develop and move east from northeastern Montana through
northern North Dakota later today.  On Tuesday, as the front continues to
progress east, the threat for severe weather is forecast to shift east as
well, with widely scattered severe thunderstorms expected over portions of
the Upper Midwest.  This includes parts of northern Minnesota, northern
Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where damaging winds and
large hail are possible.

Strong and gusty winds are expected behind the front.  A High Wind Warning
covers much of the southwestern and central Montana, where sustained winds
up to 40 mph and gusts up 70 mph are expected today. 

Gusty winds will also contribute to fire weather concerns across portions
of the northern Rockies, the Great Basin, and the central High Plains. 
Red flag warnings are in effect for parts of the area where strong winds,
low humidity, and the potential for dry thunderstorms are expected to
contribute to hazardous fire weather conditions.

In the eastern U.S., a slow-moving cold front will continue to push east,
promoting widespread showers and thunderstorms from the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast today.  Locally heavy rainfall
can be expected with some of these storms, resulting in isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding across the region.

Pereira 

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php