Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 347 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Valid 00Z Sun Aug 14 2022 - 00Z Tue Aug 16 2022 ...Heavy to excessive rainfall likely across much of the Southwest/Intermountain West, as well as across south Texas... ...Much above normal temperatures likely this weekend across the central Plains, with a warming trend for parts of the West... A very active monsoonal season will continue into at least early next week across the Southwest and into the central Great Basin and northern/central Rockies. Combined with a couple of upper level impulses, this moisture will bring periods of mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms and locally heavy rain. WPC continues to highlight a fairly expansive slight risk on the Excessive Rainfall Outlook into Monday across this region. Soils in some of the region are overly saturated so its these areas, along with burn scars and urban communities, that will be most vulnerable to flash flooding and/or debris flows. Monsoonal moisture rounding an upper ridge stuck over the southern U.S. may also spread moderate to locally heavy rainfall into parts of the northern/central Plains Sunday into Monday. Elsewhere, a tropical disturbance drifting slowly westward in the western Gulf of Mexico will bring a period of heavy rainfall to parts of south Texas this weekend. Heavy to excessive rainfall is possible and WPC has highlighted this potential in the ERO. The rest of the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast can also expect showers and storms as tropical moisture interacts with a weakening surface boundary. Meanwhile, a weak surface low and associated front will drop through the Midwest and into the central Appalachians spreading showers and thunderstorms into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible. A heat dome parked over the south-central U.S. will keep temperature well above seasonal normal across much of the Plains this weekend. The most anomalous heat should present over the central Plains where daytime highs in the upper 90s to near or surpassing 100 is possible. Reinforcing troughing across the Great Lakes/Northeast will keep temperatures rather pleasant for mid-August, with daytime highs (and overnight lows) below normal. Upper level ridging building into the interior West and California will result in a warming trend through the weekend and lasting into next week. Santorelli Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php