Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

Valid 12Z Sun Aug 14 2022 - 12Z Tue Aug 16 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northern/Central Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest through Tuesday
morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southern
Texas through Tuesday morning...

Monsoonal moisture and upper-level impulses will aid in producing diurnal
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of Wyoming, Colorado,
Utah, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico through Tuesday. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northern/Central Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest through Tuesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable. Furthermore, on Monday into Tuesday morning, the Slight Risk's
aerial coverage will be smaller than on Sunday, with parts of the Central
Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest in the threat area.

Meanwhile, an upper-level low over the southern tip of Texas will slowly
move westward into Northeastern Mexico on Monday into Tuesday. Tropical
moisture and the energy will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms
with heavy rain over southern Texas into Tuesday. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southern Texas
through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable. Similarly, on Monday into Tuesday morning,
the aerial coverage of the Slight Risk will be much smaller, mainly along
the Rio Grande in southern Texas.

Elsewhere, a weak front over the Ohio Valley will move southeastward into
South Carolina and America s Georgia by Tuesday. The system will produce
showers and thunderstorms with the possibility of heavy rain over the
region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Central Appalachians on Sunday into Monday
morning. In addition, the threat of excessive rainfall moves to Virginia
and North Carolina piedmont from Monday into Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain over these
areas.

Additionally, tropical moisture and a weak front will aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms with the possibility of heavy rain over Southern
Florida through Monday morning. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Florida Peninsula through
Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of
flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy
rain. The threat of excessive rainfall will be over a small area of
southeastern Florida on Monday into Tuesday morning.

Furthermore, upper-level ridging over the Central Plains will contribute
to a heat low developing over parts of the Central Plains on Sunday into
Tuesday. Moreover, on Tuesday, upper-level ridging will build into the
Great Basin, allowing temperatures to rise into the mid-hundreds,
prompting an Excessive Heat Watch over the Sacramento and San Joaquin
Valleys.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php