Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 15 2022 - 00Z Wed Aug 17 2022

...Monsoonal moisture to continues an excessive rain threat across much of
the Southwest into the Rockies...

...Heavy to locally excessive rain also likely across parts of south Texas
into Monday and parts of the Plains/Mississippi Valley Monday-Tuesday...

...Anomalous heat to continue across the central/southern Plains with heat
also building across the interior West...


An active monsoon pattern will continue across the Southwest and into the
central Great Basin and Rockies the next few days combined with additional
enhancement provided by a couple of weaker upper level impulses. This
results in mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms, with locally
heavy rain potential. WPC continues to highlight this potential on the
Excessive Rainfall Outlook through Tuesday. Soils in some of the region
are overly saturated so its these areas, along with burn scars and urban
communities, that will be most vulnerable to flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Monsoonal moisture rounding an upper ridge stuck over the southern
U.S. may also spread moderate to locally heavy rainfall from the
northern/central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley along a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary.

An area of low pressure across far southern Texas this afternoon will
continue to tap deep tropical moisture to fuel rain and thunderstorms
across south Texas. The heavy to excessive rainfall threat should wane by
tonight across southern Texas but may continue into tomorrow for far west
and southwest Texas as the remnant low moves into northern Mexico.
Elsewhere, a weak low and associated front through the central
Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic will bring a period of moderate to
locally heavy rain through Monday. A weakening front into northern Florida
will also bring some showers and locally heavy rainfall to southern
Florida into Monday.

A heat dome parked over the south-central U.S. will continue to keep
temperatures well above seasonal normal across much of the Plains this
weekend. The most anomalous heat should present over the central into the
southern Plains where daytime highs Monday and Tuesday in the upper 90s to
near 100 (or just above) are expected. Heat will also build across much of
the interior intermountain West this coming week, with excessive heat
watches in effect for the central valley of California where daytime highs
could exceed 100 degrees several days in a row.

Santorelli

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php