Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 25 2022 - 12Z Sat Aug 27 2022

...Heavy showers and some thunderstorms are expected to move across
Georgia toward the Carolinas this morning as scattered thunderstorms
linger along the Gulf Coast...

...Threat of strong thunderstorms expected to shift from the upper Midwest
to the Great Lakes today followed by a better chance of severe
thunderstorms across New England on Friday...

...Showers and thunderstorms could lead to locally excessive rainfall over
parts of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains as well as the
Four-corners region...

An upper-level trough interacting with a slow-moving front in a tropical
air mass continues to fuel additional rounds of heavy showers and
thunderstorms to move into the Southeast early this morning.  This system
appears to push further toward the east-northeast and bring heavy rain
across the Carolinas today and into tonight.  Over the next couple of
days, the system is forecast to become more strung out with time as it
slowly weakens.  This will lower the chance of heavy rain to be focused in
a specific area.  However, scattered thunderstorms are expected to linger
along the Gulf Coast into parts of the Southeast as we head into the
weekend.

Farther north, a front that has settled across the northern Plains will be
the focus of showers and thunderstorms.  The northern High Plains appears
to be the area favorable for the thunderstorms to contain heavy downpours
given the presence of high moisture content near the western end of the
front.  Farther east, a wave of low pressure developing along the front
across the upper Midwest will expand the showers and storms eastward into
Great Lakes today into tonight, followed by a better chance of severe
thunderstorms across New England on Friday.  By early on Saturday, drier
air behind the low pressure system should filter into much of the
Northeast.  Meanwhile, monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be a daily
occurrence across the Four-Corners region.

With the extent of cloud cover and rain, much of the South, the northern
Plains, as well as the Four-corner region will be cooler than average.  In
contrast, a strip of above average temperatures will extend across the
central Plains to the Northeast ahead of the front and the developing
frontal wave.  Meanwhile, summer heat will continue across much of the
interior western U.S.

Kong

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php