Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Aug 26 2022 - 12Z Sun Aug 28 2022

...Heavy rainfall and possible flooding continues into the weekend for the
central Gulf Coast and Southeast...

...Slight risk for severe thunderstorms across the Northeast on Friday...

...Monsoon continues across the Southwest and Four Corners regions...

A stationary boundary and abundant tropical moisture will continue the
threat for showers and thunderstorms across much of the Gulf Coast states
and the Southeast/Florida through Saturday. Although the heaviest rainfall
should be confined to coastal locations, much of this region has seen much
above normal rainfall recently and so where heavy rainfall does fall, it
could result in flooding concerns. The better day for this looks to be
Friday where WPC has a slight risk highlighted on the Excessive Rainfall
Outlook across parts of the central Gulf Coast before the boundary begins
to dissipate on Saturday.

To the north, a cold front will slide through the Northeast with showers
and thunderstorms likely along and ahead of the boundary. The environment
should be favorable to support at least isolated to scattered severe
storms and heavy rainfall, which could trigger flash flooding particularly
for areas that may have recently received heavy rain. The western portion
of this boundary, currently banked up against the northern Rockies, is
forecast to lift through the northern Plains as a warm front, with showers
and storms likely to accompany.

Ongoing monsoonal moisture will continue to stream into the Southwest and
Four Corners region through this weekend triggering diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. Given how saturated this area is, it will not
take much rainfall to cause issues. Mainly isolated flash flooding is
expected, particularly for burn scars and slot canyons. This moisture may
begin interacting with a cold front as it moves through the Western U.S.
on Saturday. Showers and storms may begin to breakout as early as Saturday
across the Plains and Mississippi Valley. One more warm day is expected
across the Northwest on Friday, but this system should usher in much
cooler temperatures by Saturday.

Santorelli

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php