Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 17 2022 - 00Z Mon Sep 19 2022

...Low pressure waves moving east across the northern Plains will bring a
threat of heavy rain across the upper Great Lakes and chance of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the upper Midwest this weekend...

...Heavy rain associated with a Pacific low pressure system is forecast to
reach northern California on Sunday...

...Heat is forecast to build across the central Plains...

A series of low pressure waves developing along a slow-moving front will
be the main focus for rounds of showers to thunderstorms across the upper
Midwest as we head into the weekend.  Some of the rain could be heavy
across the Arrow Head of Minnesota into this evening before the rain moves
farther east into southern Canada.  During the weekend, a slow-moving cold
front trailing from one of the low pressure waves will help trigger
scattered thunderstorms which could become severe across the upper Midwest
especially by late in the afternoon into the evening.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to be a daily occurrence
near the tail end of a front across the Florida Peninsula through the
weekend.  Some of the thunderstorms may extend westward to as far west as
the Texas Gulf Coast.

Across the northern to central Rockies, lingering moisture and instability
in conjunction with influx of upper-level energy will aid in producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.  Meanwhile, a low
pressure system rapidly dipping south-southeast across the eastern Pacific
is forecast to swing toward northern California by Saturday night.  An
area of moderate to heavy rain ahead of this system is forecast to reach
into northern California on Sunday, with snow possible at the higher
elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

In between the two areas of low pressure mentioned above, a warm ridge of
high pressure is forecast to expand over the mid-section of the country
this weekend.  Heat is expected to build across the central Plains under
this pattern.  High temperatures are forecast to near the century mark in
Oklahoma by Sunday.

Kong


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php