Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Tue Oct 04 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 04 2022 - 12Z Thu Oct 06 2022

...Rainy, breezy, and cool conditions persist from the Mid-Atlantic to
southern New England...

...Showers and thunderstorms over the West shift into the Southern Rockies
and High Plains...

...Shower and thunderstorm chances move eastward from the Plains into the
Midwest before a strong cold front begins pushing southward late
Wednesday...

A stubborn upper-level low will remain entrenched over the Mid-Atlantic
for at least another day, continuing the rainy, breezy, and cool
conditions that have plagued the region since the weekend. The rainfall
will also continue further to the northeast over southern New England as
onshore flow ahead of a low pressure system just off the coast shifts
further northward. Another 1-2 inches of rain are possible along and east
of the I-95 corridor through the Mid-Atlantic and along the coast in
southern New England. Fortunately, rainfall rates have been relatively low
keeping the threat for any flash and urban flooding down. Breezy
conditions will also continue, particularly along the coast, and coastal
flooding will remain a concern. The system is forecast to begin moving
eastward on Wednesday which should hopefully begin to clear out the rain
for the Mid-Atlantic while lingering a bit longer for southern New
England. Forecast high temperatures will remain well below normal by up to
20-25 degrees in some locations Tuesday. Highs along the I-95 urban
corridor and eastward in the Mid-Atlantic will be in the low to mid 50s
with upper 50s and low 60s outside of the persistent rain in the
Appalachians and Interior Northeast. Temperatures will also recover a bit
on Wednesday for the Mid-Atlantic as the rain moves out but still remain
below normal, with low to mid-60s expected.

An upper-level short-wave trough over the Great Basin is forecast to move
southeastward over the Central/Southern Rockies and eastern portions of
the Southwest, with a potential cutoff low developing, as a surface
frontal boundary follows, shifting the focus of shower and thunderstorm
chances southeastward into the Southern Rockies and High Plains. Some
storms may produce heavy rainfall rates as surface moisture remains
anomalously high across the region, and isolated instances of flash
flooding are possible given wet antecedent conditions.

The frontal system over the Southern Rockies/High Plains will also push
south and eastward from the Northern/Central Plains and into the Midwest
Tuesday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs Tuesday behind
the front will be a bit cooler than they have been the past few days,
particularly for portions of the Central Plains, with upper 60s to low 70s
expected. However, the bigger change will begin on Wednesday across the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest as a strong cold front from Canada
begins to push southward into the U.S. Temperatures will begin to plunge
late Wednesday behind the front to near or below freezing Thursday morning
after topping off in the upper 60s and low 70s. Showers are also likely
across the Upper Great Lakes later Wednesday and into Thursday morning as
this front pushes southeastward.

Elsewhere, temperatures will be above average from the Lower Great Lakes
southwestward to the Southern Plains, with low to mid-70s for the Lower
Great Lakes, upper 70s to low 80s for the Middle and Lower Mississippi
Valley, and upper 80s to 90 degrees for the Southern Plains. Highs will
also be above average in the West, with upper 70s and low 80s for the
Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, lower 90s for the central California
Valleys, low to mid-70s along the California coast, and mid-90s to near
100 for the Desert Southwest.

Putnam

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php