Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Wed Oct 05 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 06 2022 - 00Z Sat Oct 08 2022

...Conditions finally improving across the Northeast as pesky upper-level
low moves further offshore...

...Plunging temperatures in the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi
Valley as a potent cold front begins pushing southward late Wednesday...

...Daily showers and thunderstorms continue for the Southern Rockies and
High Plains, with isolated instances of flash flooding possible...

...Pleasant weather across much of the West through the end of the week...

Conditions in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England have begun to
improve as the pesky upper-level low that has produced heavy rainfall,
strong winds, coastal flooding, and well-below average temperatures over
the last several days slowly pushes further offshore into the Atlantic.
While the potential for rain still exists in coastal sections of southern
New England, with an additional 0.25-0.50" possible through the evening,
clouds should begin to break from west to east, with many in the Northeast
seeing their first peeks of sunlight since last week. Temperatures are
forecast to rebound closer to average on Thursday as clouds continue to
clear ahead of high pressure sliding eastward, with highs tomorrow
reaching the low to mid-70s across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Further
south, after a chilly start to the day with temperatures dipping into the
mid-40s across the Tennessee Valley and Mid-South, upper 70s to low 80s
can be expected for highs in the Carolinas, Southeast, and Florida.

Above-average temperatures in the Plains and Midwest on Wednesday will
come to an abrupt halt as a potent cold front pushes southward, bringing
unseasonably frigid air behind it. Highs in the northern Plains will
struggle to get out of the 40s and 50s on Thursday, while areas south of
the boundary can expect temperatures to remain closer to average, with
highs in the 70s and low 80s in the central Plains. Frigid morning lows
will follow Friday morning, with widespread temperatures below freezing
across the area, dipping as far as the low to mid-20s for portions of
North Dakota, and Minnesota. The boundary will continue its southward
progression on Friday, with temperatures plunging from the Great Lakes
through the Missouri Valley and Central Plains, where highs are forecast
to be 10-20 degrees below normal. Behind the front, lake-effect showers
are also in the forecast for the Upper Great Lakes as a result of the
cold, northwest flow across the warmer lake water. Some wet snow may mix
in for higher elevations of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
Thursday night, though little accumulation is expected.

Temperatures in the West will continue to be above average through Friday,
with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s for the Pacific Northwest and
Great Basin, lower 90s for the central California Valleys, low to mid-70s
along the California coast, and mid-90s to near 100 for the Desert
Southwest. Moreover, conditions will remain dry during this span,
resulting in overall pleasant conditions through the end of the week.

Further south, a frontal system slowly sagging southward across Arizona
and New Mexico will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall in the region
over the next several days. Anomalously high moisture that remains pooled
across the area will enhance the risk for storms to produce bouts of
heavier rainfall, and isolated instances of flash flooding are possible,
particularly for terrain-sensitive areas and across burn scars. As a
result, a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for much of
Arizona and New Mexico through Friday.


Russell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php