Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 09 2022 - 00Z Tue Oct 11 2022

...Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest and
western Texas on Sunday as daily showers and thunderstorms continue...

...Below-average temperatures across the Ohio Valley and Northeast through
Monday, with near freezing temperatures expected tonight away from the
coast...

...Pleasant conditions continue across the Pacific Northwest, California,
and Great Basin as upper-level ridge remains in place...

Nearly the entirety of the eastern half of the nation is experiencing
below-average temperatures today after a cold front passage that has since
moved offshore the east coast, with high pressure sliding eastward in its
wake. Chilly daytime temperatures will remain in the 50s across much of
the Northeast and Ohio Valley, with slightly warmer highs in the 60s
further south across the Mid-Atlantic, and 70s in the Southeast. The
high-pressure building into the Mississippi and Missouri Valleys will keep
conditions dry with clear skies, allowing for much of the Ohio Valley and
Northeast to experience their coldest evening of the fall so far, with
widespread Frost Advisories and isolated Freeze Warnings in the higher
elevations of the Appalachian region being issued through Sunday morning.
Nighttime lows are forecast to drop to near freezing throughout much of
the interior portions of the eastern region, with warmer lows in the 40s
expected along the coast. Temperatures will begin to rebound on Sunday,
albeit remaining below average, with highs in the 60s through Monday
across the Northeast and even some low 70s sneaking southward towards the
Ohio Valley ahead of the next cold front passage at the beginning of the
week. In addition to the cool air behind the front, gusty winds of 20-30
mph, blowing across the warmer Great Lakes water will lead to lake-effect
showers for the Upper Great Lakes and interior Northeast. Higher
elevations in interior New England and upstate New York may see some wet
snow Sunday and Monday mornings, but no accumulation is expected.

Temperatures are beginning to rebound across the northern Plains as more
seasonable highs in the mid-to-upper 60s return ahead of a weak cold front
that will sweep through on Sunday, bringing slightly drier conditions to
the region. Near-normal highs will spread southward on Sunday into Monday,
with much of the central Plains and Midwest climbing into the upper 60s to
low 70s.

Further south, daily showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
Southwest and western Texas on the east side of a lingering upper-level
low that is allowing for moisture-rich air to surge northwestward, causing
heavy rainfall rates and isolated instances of flash flooding,
particularly in areas of sensitive terrain and across burn scars. As a
result, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for southern
New Mexico and southwestern Texas on Sunday. Furthermore, high
temperatures will remain below normal, with temperatures ranging from the
mid-60s to the low 70s.

Pleasant conditions will continue across the Pacific Northwest,
California, and the Great Basin through Monday as an upper-level ridge
remains anchored in place over the region. Highs are forecast to remain in
the upper 70s and low 80s for the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin; lower
90s for the central California valleys; upper 60s to low-70s along the
California coast; and mid-90s to near 100 for the Desert Southwest.
Moreover, conditions will remain dry during this span, resulting in
overall pleasant conditions through the end of the weekend.

Elsewhere, easterly flow off the Atlantic will allow showers and
thunderstorms to develop over parts of southeastern Florida on Saturday
into Monday.

Russell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php