Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 30 2022 - 00Z Tue Nov 01 2022

...Flash Flooding and Severe Thunderstorms will impact portions of the
Central Gulf Coast region through tonight...

...Unsettled weather will spread into the Eastern U.S. Sunday into
Monday...

...Rain and high elevation snow expected in the Pacific Northwest late
this weekend into Monday...

The main weather feature through the weekend will be a low pressure system
tracking northeast across the eastern CONUS. As of this afternoon
(Saturday afternoon), the system was tracking across the lower Mississippi
Valley and creating numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Ample moisture and instability in the warm sector of the system will
provide support for scattered severe thunderstorms through tonight. The
Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms
(level 2/5) for today for portions of eastern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle. Potential severe
storm hazards include damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Training
storms will also produce heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding.
The highest risk area for flash flooding will be in southern Mississippi
and Alabama, and the far western Florida panhandle, and there is a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect for this area through
tonight.

Thunderstorms will continue to be possible with the system as it moves
towards the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Sunday, but severe storms and
flash flooding are not anticipated. On Monday/Halloween, the system will
gradually weaken and split into two low pressure centers, one will track
towards the Great Lakes region and the other will track across the
Southeast. These two systems will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to much of the eastern U.S. Monday into Tuesday.

In the West, a frontal boundary will linger near the Washington Coast
through Sunday, then the next storm system will arrive in the Pacific
Northwest late Sunday into Monday. The lingering boundary will provide
support for showers at low elevations and mixed precipitation at higher
elevations through Sunday, mainly along and west of the Cascades.
Precipitation will expand across the region Late Sunday through Monday as
a cold front progresses southeast, and heavy snow will be possible at
higher elevations. Cooler air will filter into the Pacific Northwest
behind the front while southerly winds ahead of the front bring warmer air
into the Central U.S. High temperatures will reach 15-20 degrees above
normal (into the 60s and 70s) for much of the Central U.S. on Monday and
Tuesday.


Dolan


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php