Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Nov 05 2022 - 00Z Mon Nov 07 2022

...Severe thunderstorms likely today across parts of the Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Atmospheric river to bring widespread rain and high elevation snow to
the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies...

...Moderate to Heavy mountain snow today and Saturday across the northern
and central Rockies...

...Above average temperatures across the eastern U.S. through the
weekend...

Active weather across the western half of CONUS continues today, as a
potent storm system associated with a deep upper-level trough progresses
eastward through the central Plains, generating significant weather
hazards including severe thunderstorms and isolated instances of heavy
rainfall. Warm, moist air surging ahead of a strong cold front pushing
eastward through the southern Plains, in conjunction with ample low-level
and deep-layer wind shear will create conditions ripe for a severe weather
outbreak across the Ark-La-Tex region, with the potential for destructive
winds, isolated hail, and tornadoes. As a result, the Storm Prediction
Center has issued a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms for northeastern
Texas, southwestern Arkansas, and southeastern Oklahoma, with an Enhanced
Risk encompassing the aforementioned area across the broader Ark-La-Tex
region. In addition to the developing severe weather situation, the
potential also exists for localized heavy rainfall rates associated with
thunderstorms extending from the Gulf Coast northward through the
Mississippi Valley and Midwest. However, the fast-moving nature of the
system will inhibit flash flooding potential, despite the anomalously
moist air in place. Conditions will begin to improve in the Plains late
this evening into tomorrow as the cold front pushes eastward into the
Southeast, where showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue,
albeit with less severe potential as the system weakens and convection
moves into a region of more stable atmospheric conditions. Isolated areas
of heavy rainfall, especially in the lower Mississippi, may occur tomorrow
afternoon, although the potential for isolated instances of flash flooding
will remain low.

Further west, an atmospheric river event continues to dump low-elevation
rain and mountain snow across much of the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies, as continuous moisture funnels into the region. Rainfall totals
of 2-6" are possible across the region before the moisture plume pushes
south, which, in unison with the recent rainfall, may lead to isolated
instances of flash flooding, especially in areas with elevation. As a
result, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for portions of
western Washington and northwestern Oregon through this evening. Isolated
areas of heavy mountain snow may also be possible in higher elevations of
the Cascade mountains. Precipitation will spread inland this afternoon
into tomorrow, where mixed precipitation and snow will fall across the
higher elevations, leading to Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather
Advisories being issued for portions of eastern Idaho, Montana, and
Wyoming. Wintry precipitation will continue through Saturday into early
Sunday as a cold front associated with the system moves southeast across
the northwestern U.S. Cold air will accompany this system, and
temperatures will drop to 15-20 degrees below normal across the northern
High Plains by Sunday. In addition to the precipitation, strong, gusty
winds will impact much of the region as the system moves inland and
intensifies, with expansive High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories issued
for much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.

Across the eastern third of the country, warmer-than-average temperatures
will persist under the influence of an expansive high-pressure system
centered over the Northeast. Widespread above-average highs are forecast
today across the Ohio Valley and Midwest, with temperatures in the
mid-to-upper 70s (15-25 degrees above average) due to a dry, southerly
flow. As the high pressure continues pushing east, the warm air will shift
eastward into the Southeast and Northeast this weekend, leading to
delightful weather for outdoor activities.


Russell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php