Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 11 2022 - 12Z Sun Nov 13 2022

...Tropical Depression Nicole will continue to weaken and become
post-tropical on Friday as it interacts with approaching cold front...

...Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms possible across Eastern region
as Nicole undergoes extratropical transition...

...Below-average temperatures will impact much of the lower 48 by end of
weekend...

...Ground blizzard conditions possible at times across northern North
Dakota and Minnesota through Friday morning...

Tropical Depression Nicole will continue weakening as it moves further
inland, eventually becoming a Post-Tropical system by Friday evening.
Multiple weather hazards, including heavy rainfall, severe weather, and
gusty winds, will continue to impact much of the East Coast as Nicole
transitions to a Post-Tropical system and interacts with a broader-scale
trough sweeping eastward.

Anomalously moist air surging northward ahead of Nicole will contribute to
a broad area of heavy rainfall stretching from the Southeast through the
Appalachians and interior Northeast on Friday. Onshore flow on the
northeastern side of Nicole will continue to produce bands of showers and
thunderstorms streaming northward throughout the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic, increasing the potential for localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams being the most
vulnerable. In addition to the threat of heavy rainfall, severe
thunderstorms are also possible, with the Storm Prediction Center issuing
a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for coastal sections of the
Carolinas and Georgia on Friday. As Nicole continues to move northward, a
potent cold front pushing eastward will interact with the system,
broadening the rain shield and increasing the threat of heavy rainfall
over interior portions of the Northeast. Widespread totals of 1-3" of
rain, with locally higher amounts, will be possible along a stripe
extending from the Appalachians through Maine. As a result, a Slight Risk
of Excessive Rainfall has been hoisted for much of the aforementioned
region. Conditions will begin to improve on Saturday as the last of the
precipitation exits northward into Canada and much colder air filters in
behind the cold front that will have pushed offshore.

Across the northern Plains, the impressive fall snowstorm has begun to
wind down, with snow lightening and pushing northward into Canada. At
times, gusty winds will continue to produce ground blizzard conditions in
portions of northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota, leading
to reduced visibility from blowing snow, which may lead to dangerous
travel conditions and additional scattered power outages. The fresh
snowpack will also contribute to limiting radiative heating as daytime
temperatures struggle to make it out of the teens this weekend.

Elsewhere, the main story this weekend will be the cool and dry conditions
in the wake of the cold front exiting the East Coast. Daytime temperatures
of 10-20 degrees below-average will stretch across the entirety of the
nation through Sunday as high-pressure dominates the central U.S.,
allowing for arctic air to pour into the lower 48.


Russell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php