Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 18 2022 - 00Z Sun Nov 20 2022

...Heavy lake effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below average from the Great
Lakes to the Rockies...

...There are Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories, and Lake
Effect Snow Warnings snow downwind from the Great Lakes through the end of
the forecast period...

Cold high pressure will move into the Northern Rockies, Northern
Intermountain Region, and Northern High Plains, then extend into the
Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley by Friday evening. The cold air
associated with the high pressure will be 10 to 25 degrees below average
over the Rockies, Plains, and Great Lakes. Upper-level energy will move
over the Upper Midwest into the Northeast through Saturday. The cold air
moving over the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes will produce
heavy lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes through the forecast
period.

Heavy lake effect snow will persist through Sunday downwind of each of the
Great Lakes. The most intense snowfall is expected through Friday. East of
Lakes Erie and Ontario, snowfall will, at times, be accompanied by
lightning, gusty winds, and rates of 3 inches per hour. The snowfall will
produce near zero visibility, difficult to impossible travel, damage to
infrastructure, and paralyze the hardest-hit communities. Snowfall rates
will reach 1-2 inches per hour along the southern shores of Lakes Superior
and the eastern shores of Lake Michigan, which will combine with gusty
winds to produce near-zero visibility and dangerous travel. Total snow
amounts of 1-2 feet are expected in many locations. Maximum snow
accumulations are likely to exceed 4 feet in or near Buffalo, NY. Very
cold air will accompany this event, with temperatures 20 degrees below
normal forecast by the weekend.

Moreover, the upper-level energy will produce light snow over the Upper
Midwest through Friday morning. The upslope flow will also aid in creating
snow over parts of the Central Rockies through Friday evening. On early
Friday morning, low-level flow off the Western Gulf of Mexico will start
to stream northward over the Southern Plains. The moisture and upper-level
energy will produce light snow over parts of the Southern High Plains late
Friday night into Saturday morning. In addition, light rain will develop
over parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Saturday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php