Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Nov 19 2022 - 00Z Mon Nov 21 2022

...Heavy lake effect snow downwind of the Great Lakes, most intense
downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario...

...Anomalous cold will continue through the weekend, then seasonable
temperatures return next week...

An intense lake effect snow event is ongoing downwind of the Great Lakes.
A cold front is currently moving east across the region, and
west-northwesterly winds in the wake of the front will advect cold air
over the relatively warmer lake waters. This will continue to produce snow
bands that will with heavy lake effect snow in downwind areas. A second
cold front will cross the region over the weekend, and periods of heavy
lake effect snow will continue through Sunday with the most intense
snowfall expected through this evening. Heavy snowfall may be accompanied
by lightning and gusty winds at times, resulting in near zero visibility,
nearly impossible travel, and damage to infrastructure, which could
paralyze the hardest hit communities. The highest snowfall totals are
expected to be downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario where fetch will be
maximized across the lake. Total snow amounts of 1-2 feet are expected n
many locations with 2-3 feet likely east of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Historic snowfall exceeding 4 feet will be possible south of Buffalo, New
York. Very cold air will accompany this event with temperatures 20 degrees
below normal forecast by the weekend. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter
Storm Warnings are in effect downwind of Lakes Superior and Michigan, and
Lake Effect Snow Warnings are in effect downwind of Lakes Erie and
Ontario.

Anomalously cold temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend
for much of the CONUS, and numerous locations are forecast to experience
record cold maximum temperatures each day. The coldest temperature
anomalies (20-25 degrees below normal) are expected from the Rockies to
the Great Lakes region today and Saturday; high temperatures near or below
freezing will be common in the northern and central Plains and Upper
Midwest. Strong gusty winds in addition to cold air will produce bitter
conditions across the northern Plains through tonight, and Wind Advisories
are in effect. At the other end of the Plains, precipitation along a
weakening frontal boundary in Texas and New Mexico could turn into wintry
mixed precipitation tonight into Saturday morning when temperatures fall
below freezing overnight. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for
portions of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. The frontal boundary
across the south will dissipate by Saturday night, then a second cold
front will push southeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. Cold air will
shift into the eastern third of the country on Sunday behind the second
cold front, and more seasonable temperatures will begin to return the
northern/central Plains. The rest of the country will gradually warm back
up to near seasonable temperatures through early next week.


Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php