Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 23 2022 - 12Z Fri Nov 25 2022

...Rain and mountain snow possible across the Northern/Central Rockies and
Northern Plains today...

...Heavy rainfall to spread across parts of the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley on Thanksgiving Day...

...Potentially impactful snow could begin as early as Thursday night for
parts of the Southern Plains...


An upper-level trough will dig into the Rockies today and into the
Southern Plains as a closed low by Thanksgiving. An upper ridge moves into
the West while an elongated trough emerges over the Pacific Northwest
toward the end of the week.

The main area of concern heading into the Thanksgiving holiday will be the
potential for a dynamic low pressure system to impact portions of the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley with heavy rainfall, snow and
thunderstorms. An upper trough will rapidly intensify as it digs into the
Rockies today. Mountain snow is expected over the higher elevations of the
Northern/Central Rockies and Northern/Central Plains, while light rain is
likely over lower elevations of the Northwest. Anywhere between 4-8 inches
of snow are possible for the aforementioned areas with locally higher
amounts possible. This precipitation will be welcomed in the Northwest,
due to poor air quality which has plagued the region since early this
week. Air stagnation advisories and air quality alerts remain in effect
for parts of southern Oregon and western Idaho as high pressure and calm
surface winds persist over those areas.

Our western trough will amplify over the Southern Plains and begin tapping
into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico on Thanksgiving. Heavy rainfall will
spread across eastern Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley as a
result. A slight risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding is
in effect for eastern Texas, much of north-central Louisiana, southern
Arkansas and much of Mississippi on Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected with the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms to develop
within areas of increased instability. Several inches of rain are expected
to have fallen across the aforementioned areas by this Saturday morning.
Holiday travel within the Lower Mississippi Valley may be impacted by the
heavy rain on Thursday and Friday.

Moderate to heavy snow is possible on the backside of this surface low
pressure system over the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico on
Thanksgiving night into Friday morning. Moisture is expected to wrap
around the surface low and interact with cold air filtering into the
region on Thursday night. A stripe of moderate snowfall is likely to
develop somewhere from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle where
between 4-6 inches of snow is likely with locally higher amounts possible.
There's still some uncertainty with respect to the timing and placement of
the heaviest snow band associated with this system, but folks doing
holiday shopping or traveling within the Texas Panhandle should consider
impacts from the snow on Thursday night-Friday morning. Temperatures will
remain above average for much of the north-central and eastern part of the
country through Friday while the Southern Plains cools down on the
backside of the deepening trough. High temperatures in the 30s and 40s
over New Mexico and western Texas on Thanksgiving will be a 15-25 degree
departure from normal. An upper ridge will shift into the West bringing
with it above normal temperatures to the West Coast through Friday.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php