Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 24 2022 - 00Z Sat Nov 26 2022

...Light snow possible across parts of the central Rockies and High Plains
this evening...

...Heavy to excessive rainfall likely across the South on Thanksgiving
Day...

...Potentially impactful snow becoming increasingly likely Thursday night
into Friday for parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains...


An upper level shortwave will drop through the Rockies today, bringing
some generally light accumulating snow to parts of the Central Rockies and
High Plains this evening. Temperatures will be colder for the Thanksgiving
Holiday across this region, but should rebound quickly by Friday as an
upper ridge moves into the region. The rest of the West looks warm and dry
through the rest of the week as surface high pressure dominates. Santa Ana
winds may bring elevated fire weather concerns to parts of southern
California on Thursday, and a period of rain and mountain snow is possible
Friday for parts of the Pacific Northwest in response to a cold front
through the region.

The big weather story for the holiday week however will be as the Rockies
shortwave today drops southward and intensifies Thursday into Friday over
the Four Corners and southern high Plains. Gulf of Mexico moisture ahead
of this will interact with a front along the Gulf Coast to produce
widespread thunderstorms and moderate to heavy rainfall across eastern
parts of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered flash flooding
is possible through Friday across this region as highlighted by the WPC
excessive rainfall outlooks. The backside of the upper low over the
southern High Plains should have sufficiently cold air to produce
impactful snow accumulations to portions of eastern New Mexico and far
West Texas beginning Thanksgiving night and lasting into Friday. Snow
accumulations of 3 to 8 inches, with locally higher amounts especially in
the higher terrain, are possible with hazardous travel conditions likely.
Daytime highs 20-30 degrees below normal are likely Thursday and Friday
for this region as well.

Thanksgiving Day looks dry and warmer than seasonable normal across much
of the Eastern U.S.. A cold front to the west will help rain to spread
northward into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Thursday though, and
eventually the Eastern U.S. by Friday.


Santorelli


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php