Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EST Fri Nov 25 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Nov 26 2022 - 00Z Mon Nov 28 2022

...Heavy snow in parts of southeastern New Mexico and West Texas through
tonight...

...Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue along the Texas Gulf
Coast through tonight...

...Heavy mountain snow possible in the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rocky mountains this weekend...

A deep upper level low over the southern High Plains will continue to
produce wintry precipitation in the area through tonight, then the upper
low will swiftly track northeast late Saturday into Sunday. Heavy snow
with snow rates of 1-2 inches per hour is likely for parts of southeastern
New Mexico and West Texas, and Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect. Additional snowfall accumulations near or above
4 inches will be possible, especially in higher terrain. Cold air
accompanying this system will keep high temperatures 10-20 degrees below
normal in the region through Saturday.

Ahead of the upper low, a surface low is approaching the northern Gulf
Coast from the south, bringing a frontal boundary north towards the area.
Heavy rainfall will continue through tonight into Saturday morning,
especially along the Texas Gulf Coast where 2-3 inches of rain are
expected with locally higher amounts possible. There is a Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) in effect for this area. Rain will be
falling on saturated soils, which will increase the risk of flash
flooding. Scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding are expected,
and isolated significant flash flooding will be possible in the Moderate
Risk area.

As the upper level low moves northeast this weekend, the surface frontal
system affecting the Gulf Coast will shift northeast as well.
Precipitation associated with the system will move northeast through the
weekend, spreading across the Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes regions and
into the Northeast by Sunday. Precipitation will fall as rain for most,
but mixed wintry precipitation will be possible in northern New England
and parts of the Great Lakes region. Monday, the system is forecast to
push off the east coast, and mostly dry conditions will return to the east.

In the West, two frontal systems are expected to move southeast across the
region this weekend. The first cold front entered the Pacific northwest
this afternoon and will push into the Southwest on Saturday. The second
cold front will approach the Pacific Northwest Saturday night and push
into the area on Sunday. Precipitation chances will increase following the
passage of each front, but will be more widespread behind the second
front, which will be associated with stronger upper level support.
Precipitation is forecast to fall as rain at low elevations and as mixed
precipitation and snow at mid and high elevations. Heavy snow will be
possible Saturday and Sunday in the higher elevations of the Cascades and
northern Rockies, and Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories
are in effect for areas where the highest impacts are expected. 


Dolan

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php