Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 336 PM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 Valid 00Z Wed Dec 14 2022 - 00Z Fri Dec 16 2022 ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms and a Slight to Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast through Thursday... ...Heavy snow over the Upper Midwest on Wednesday and over parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and the northern Mid-Atlantic on Thursday... ...Rain/freezing rain over parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday and Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians on Thursday... A deep storm over the Central Plains will move northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes by Thursday evening as a secondary storm develops over parts of the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. The impacts from the storm are multiple days of heavy snow, strong winds, and periods of freezing rain will create major to extreme impacts across the north-central U.S. from Tuesday into Thursday evening. Blizzard conditions are expected for the Northern and Central High Plains, where 1-2 inches per hour snow rates and winds gusting 50-60 mph will create near zero visibility and snow-covered roads. Difficult to impossible travel, scattered power outages, and harsh livestock conditions are expected. Heavy snow and gusty winds will likely spread across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Wednesday and Thursday. Blowing and drifting snow will create difficult travel due to low visibility and snow-covered roads. A wintry mix, including freezing rain and sleet, will continue across the Plains and shift into the Upper Midwest through Wednesday. In some areas, freezing rain accretions may exceed 0.25 inches, creating dangerous travel conditions and isolated power outages. Strong winds and cold temperatures will continue even after this storm ends, creating bitterly cold wind chills. In addition, as the secondary storm develops over the Southern Appalachians and moves to Mid-Atlantic on Thursday, heavy snow will develop over parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and the northern Mid-Atlantic. Furthermore, rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of the region with ice accumulation of up to 0.25 inches. Meanwhile, as the associated front moves across the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is an increased risk of EF2- EF5 tornados over parts of the region. Moreover, the heavy rain associated with the thunderstorms will produce excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. The threat of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall continues on Wednesday as the front moves eastward. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast for Wednesday into Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is an increased risk of EF2- EF5 tornados over parts of the region. The threat of excessive rainfall increased on Wednesday with the heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of Lower Mississippi Valley, Central Gulf Coast, and the Southeast for Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. However, the threat of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall decreases on Thursday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast on Thursday. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. The excessive rainfall threat ends on Thursday for now. Still, heavy rain may occur over parts of the Mid-Atlantic near the coast. Also, snow will linger on Thursday over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php