Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 456 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2014 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 17 2014 - 12Z Thu Jun 19 2014 ...Showers and thunderstorms expected from the Plains to Ohio Valley for the next few days... ...Convection will continue over the northern Rockies... A cluster of on-going showers and thunderstorms will keep moving eastward through the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region. These storms, which have produced severe storms, are expected to weaken as Tuesday goes on and will decrease in coverage. It will continue to follow the surface low associated with the frontal boundary that has triggered these storms. This low will move across the Great Lakes and into Canada by Tuesday night. However, the aforementioned boundary, a slow moving warm front, will be draped across the Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley and will fire off even more convection. These showers and thunderstorms will linger throughout Wednesday and into Thursday. This will likely lead to possible flash flooding conditions. The deepening upper level low moving across the Intermountain West will continue its eastward trek ever so slowly towards the Plains. Along with it, a surface trough sets up along the northern Rockies and stays put for several days. With the forcing in place and a trough to provide a focal point for activity, this will generate continuous convection across the Rockies and High Plains for the next few days. Heavy rain is expected across these regions with such persistent activity. This could lead to possible flooding and even flash flooding. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will ignite along the dryline in Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma during the afternoon and early evening hours the next few days. Florida and portions of the Gulf Coast can also expect diurnal-driven thunderstorms. The most coverage will likely be in south-central Florida during the late afternoon both Tuesday and Wednesday. Fanning Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php