Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 453 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2014 Valid 00Z Sun Aug 17 2014 - 00Z Tue Aug 19 2014 ...Heavy rains and flash flooding possible with a surface low tracking from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley... ...Strong to severe storms expected over the Northern High Plains on Sunday... An organized area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop to the east of a surface wave tracking out of the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley this weekend. A rich supply of Gulf moisture feeding into the storms will allow for periods of heavy rains and pose a risk for flash flooding. Upstream...an upper disturbance will help trigger convection while crossing the Northern Plains on Sunday and dropping through the Upper Midwest on Monday. Even though much of this system's moisture supply will be robbed by the low tracking through the Ohio Valley...heavy rains and strong to severe storms will still be possible across the north central U.S.. Elsewhere across the Nation...showers and thunderstorms will be possible with a cold front pushing through interior New England Saturday night. Conditions will remain favorable for scattered convection farther south along the Central Gulf Coast and across Florida. Out West...afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue to pop up across the Southwest and Southern Rockies...but coverage and intensity of activity should be less than in recent days. Gerhardt Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php