Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 227 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2014 Valid 00Z Mon Oct 13 2014 - 00Z Wed Oct 15 2014 ...A slight risk of severe thunderstorms along with heavy rain/flash flooding are possible from the Central/Southern Plains through the lower and Middle Mississippi valley into the Mid-South and Deep South into Tuesday... ...Fay and Gonzalo to remain well east of the Lower 48 United States... A deep cyclone moves from the southern Plains through the Mississippi Valley over the next couple days, sending its cold front through much of the Gulf coast through Tuesday. This system is strong with a segment of the jet stream rotating around its southern side, which leads to both the possibility of heavy rainfall/flash flooding along with the risk of severe weather near and ahead of its cold front. Waves of lighter precipitation are expected to move through the upper Ohio valley, Mid-Atlantic states, along with portions of the central and northern Appalachians ahead of this system during the next couple of days. For excessive rainfall/flash flood concerns, see Weather Prediction Center excessive rainfall graphics. For severe weather concerns, see Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks. Out West, an occluded cyclone moves eastward across western Canada, dragging its cold front through the Pacific Northwest and eventually into California. Across the Northwest in particular, onshore flow from the Pacific should lead to a growing area of precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, which could have embedded thunderstorms due to the system's related cold pool aloft. Across the Great Basin, Southwest, and New England, ridging aloft should keep the region high and dry into Tuesday. In the subtropics, Tropical Storm Fay should roam across the subtropical Atlantic and become a non-tropical storm with time while moving northeast away from Bermuda. Newly-formed Gonzalo could bring heavy rainfall to the Leeward Islands over the next couple of days before steering generally northward to the south and southwest of Bermuda. See the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center regarding these two systems. Roth Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php