Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 319 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2015 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2015 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2015 ***Highly amplified weather pattern across the United States*** ***Very cold weather continues east of the Rocky Mountains*** ***Heavy snow and strong winds for New England*** The overall weather pattern over the next couple of days will be featured with a pronounced upper level trough over the eastern half of the country, and a big upper level ridge for the western states. The result is that upper level winds are blowing from northwest to southeast, with low pressure systems dropping southward out of Canada towards the East Coast. This will keep the West Coast and into the Intermountain West warmer and drier than normal, and the central and eastern parts of the U.S. much colder and unsettled. The warmest temperatures are expected over southern California and southern Arizona, where more 80+ degree weather is expected over the weekend. Within this flow from Canada will be a potent shortwave disturbance aloft tracking southward across the Great Lakes from northern Canada. This is known as a Manitoba Mauler since it comes from the direction of the Manitoba province in Canada. A surface low and strong cold front will accompany this feature as it tracks over the Great Lakes and then to the Northeast U.S., with a massive surface high pressure area settling in behind it. This low will then undergo explosive cyclogenesis near the New England coast, with surface pressures forecast to fall under 970mb in the center of the low as it tracks towards Nova Scotia. The result will be an intense nor'easter with heavy snow and blizzard conditions for eastern New England by Sunday morning, with one to two feet of snow likely along with wind gusts in excess of 50 mph! This same storm will usher in a truly arctic airmass behind it, with some of the coldest weather of the season for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. by Sunday. High temperatures are expected to be 20 to 35 degrees below normal by February standards, with afternoon readings in the single digits and teens, and 20s extending well into Virginia and North Carolina. The strong winds will combine with these frigid temperatures to produce brutal subzero wind chills. D. Hamrick Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php