Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 431 PM EDT Fri May 01 2015 Valid 00Z Sat May 02 2015 - 00Z Mon May 04 2015 ...Above normal temperatures to prevail over much of the nation... ...Heavy rainfall possible across the Upper Midwest by Sunday morning... It should be a relatively quiet start to the month of May in terms of precipitation while much of the country sees above normal temperatures. The overall pattern favors keeping the jet stream north of the international border with Canada. Ultimately this will maintain the more active weather across Canada while more tranquil conditions should prevail over the U.S. The overall access of moisture is forecast to be meager at best as a cold front sweeps through the state of Florida and moves south of Cuba. Much of the moisture will remain in the Gulf of Mexico although south-southeasterly flow should pick up by later in the weekend which will increase the low-level moisture across the Great Plains. The jet stream being positioned well to the north will allow for the dominance of Pacific air masses across the country. General westerly flow should support above normal temperatures, particularly across the Plains where readings in the 80s will be commonplace on Saturday. Such warmth suggests temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees above normal across the Northern Plains. Mild weather should prevail through the remainder of the weekend given little change in the pattern expected. Initially, the threat for precipitation will be across the lower Mid-Atlantic and upper Carolinas as an upper low moves off the coast. Much of these rains should congregate just north and west of a surface low which is expected to deepen as it moves farther into the Atlantic. This threat should subside by later tonight as the circulation exits off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Elsewhere, weak impulses tracking from west to east across the Central Great Basin and Rockies will help spawn areas of showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the peak heating of the day. Eventually the focus will turn more toward the Upper Midwest as a cold front advances through the region. Unlike earlier, moisture return should be more substantial by early Sunday which will spread an area of moderate rainfall across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Rubin-Oster Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php