Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 345 PM EDT Thu Jul 02 2015 Valid 00Z Fri Jul 03 2015 - 00Z Sun Jul 05 2015 ...Heavy rain, severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible from portions of the Southern Plains eastward across the Tennessee Valley to the Mid Atlantic states... ...Temperatures across the northwestern U.S. will remain well above average... ...Much cooler temperatures begin to move into the northern Rockies by Sunday... The weather pattern for the next several days will be on auto pilot with a continuation of heavy showers, thunderstorms and the possibility of severe weather along a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending from the Southern Plains eastward to the East Coast. The front separates relatively comfortable conditions across the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast from very warm humid conditions along the Gulf Coast and Southeast and will continue to focus the chances for heavy precipitation from southern Kansas and Oklahoma across Arkansas, Tennessee, northern Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia into southeast Kentucky, Virginia and North Carolina. Rainfall across the region is expected to average between 1 and 4 inches over the next 3 days, with locally higher amounts. Comfortable and dry weather is expected from Iowa eastward ACROSS northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio across Lower Michigan, as well as portions of central New England, making for a rather comfortable July 4th holiday. Showers will begin to creep northward across the Ohio Valley into the Middle Atlantic states, while scattered showers and thundershowers will occur over the Southeast. Farther west, showers should diminish over the Northern Plains by Thursday night while afternoon showers and thunderstorms will pop up across the elevated terrain of the Southwest and Southern Rockies for the next several days. Across the West, the upper-level ridge that has been persistent for many days will continue though temperatures will moderate slightly. By the end of the weekend, however, a significant area of much cooler weather will pool to the north the US Canadian border and will begin to spill southward into the northern Rockies on Sunday, possibly bringing the recent high temperature regime to an end, at least temporarily. Kocin Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php