Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 316 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2015 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 12 2015 - 12Z Tue Jul 14 2015 ...There is a moderate risk for severe weather on Sunday and Monday over portions of the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley... ...Heavy rain and flash flooding are possible over the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Appalachians... A weak nearly stationary front will be the focus for both heavy showers and thundershowers and severe thunderstorms over the next few days with periodic development of multi thunderstorm complexes. The most likely areas to receive heavy showers/thunderstorms include Minnesota/Wisconsin/northern Illinois/Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky/West Virginia and portions of Tennessee/Virginia/Maryland and Pennsylvania. The greatest threat from severe thunderstorms will be found over the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday and over the Ohio Valley on Monday. For more details...visit the Storm Prediction Center website. In addition...a weak low is expected to form along the stationary front along the North Carolina coast and drift slowly northeastward into the western Atlantic and the National Hurricane Center will be following this system to see if it has any chance to develop into a tropical depression or tropical cyclone. An upper air disturbance will be approaching the Northwest Coast over the next few days and will aid in the development of mostly afternoon and evening convection across the interior of Oregon/Idaho/Montana and parts of Wyoming. Hot temperatures will continue to affect the Southern to Northern Plains with temperatures nearing 100 degrees across Texas and Oklahoma into parts of Kansas. Southwesterly air aloft west of the hot air mass will bring moisture up across the Southwest into Colorado with mostly afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing especially over the higher elevations. Kocin Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php