Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 458 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2015 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 05 2015 - 12Z Wed Oct 07 2015 ...Heavy rain and flooding likely for parts of the Carolinas... ...Heavy rain and flash flooding possible for the Sierra-Nevada range and Four Corners region... An upper level low and associated surface boundary will continue to keep much of the Carolinas and areas to the south wet. Circulation around the upper low will stream a plume of very moist air toward the Carolinas through Tuesday morning, before decreasing through the afternoon and evening. Rain with a few embedded thunderstorms could produce up to an additional 3 inches over the very water-logged southern Mid-Atlantic region. Widespread flooding has been ongoing for the past few days and will likely persist through midweek. Many locations in South Carolina have already broken numerous precipitation records with this event. Another upper-level low positioned over Southern California will slowly weaken while moving into parts of the Southwest by Tuesday morning. Warm, moist flow will advect into the Southwest quarter of the country which will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms. Convective activity is expected to initiate over parts of Southern/Central California eastward to the Central/Southern High Plains. Rainfall amounts up to 1.5 inches is forecast for the Desert Southwest and Central Rockies. Slightly higher amounts will be over southern New Mexico and western Texas. Amounts up to 2 inches will be common for those areas, with isolated higher amounts possible. Bursts of higher rainfall intensities may raise the threat for flash flooding over the next few days. Upper-level energy and an developing front over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes may produce rain this morning, however this system will be mostly dry as it spreads across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php