Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 447 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2015 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 06 2015 - 12Z Thu Oct 08 2015 ...Flash flooding possible across portions of the Four Corners and Desert Southwest regions... ...Severe thunderstorms possible for portions of Arizona, New Mexico and Texas... The low pressure system, and its associated surface front that has been wreaking havoc along the Eastern Seaboard this past week, will track further away from the coast. A few lingering showers will be possible today, but overall the heavy rain has ceased. The threat for flash flooding has diminished as well, however widespread areal flooding is expected to continue for the Carolinas. The eastern third of the CONUS will be dominated by high pressure through midweek, therefore conditions will be dry and pleasant. Temperatures will average around 5 degrees above the seasonal normal for early October. Much of the Southwest and the Central/Southern Rockies will have scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Southwest U.S. an usher warm, moist air from the Pacific into the area. Locally heavy rain will be possible, which could elevate the risk for flash flooding for some areas. Most areas are forecast to receive 0.50 to 1.50 inches by Thursday. Southeast New Mexico and West Texas could see amounts of 2 to 3 inches, with isolated higher totals possible. The risk of flash flooding will be more prominate in this region. The upper-level low will move east on Wednesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms into the southern High Plains. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure system will develop across the High Plains on Wednesday as an upper-level disturbance interacts with a surface front lingering in the lee of the Rockies. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop from the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. Precipitation amounts will be on the light side, generally less than 1 inch, over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php