Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 213 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2015 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 23 2015 - 12Z Sun Oct 25 2015 ...Heavy rain and flash flooding will continue throughout the southern Plains and portions of the Mississippi Valley... A closed upper level low centered over the High Plains will move northeastward toward the Upper Midwest. This upper level low extends toward the Desert Southwest which will help play a role for persistent heavy rainfall across the southern Plains. As this broad area of low pressure progresses eastward, an impressive amount of moist and unstable air from the Gulf of Mexico will be transported from Deep South Texas to the Red River Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front has been draped across north Texas and southern Oklahoma and will remain there through Saturday. This front will be the focal point for convection to continue firing off from Friday and into early Saturday morning. Most of this convection will occur from central to north Texas. As the axis of the upper level low centers over the Big Bend region of Texas, this will drive the main cold front to move from the central Plains on Friday toward the Texas coastline throughout Saturday and into Sunday morning. This will shift the heaviest axis of rainfall south and eastward along the coast of Texas. Given that this will be a multi-day event and will likely drop a significant amount of rain, flash flooding will be a major concern. See both WPC's excessive rainfall forecasts and QPF for further information. As the upper level low swiftly moves toward the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes on Saturday, this will bring the aforementioned cold front toward the Great Lakes region by late Friday night. Light to moderate showers will spread across the northern Plains on Friday morning. By Friday night, rainfall will move into the Upper Great Lakes region. As the cold front advances across the Ohio Valley and into New England, the light to moderate showers will also follow. Expect precipitation to begin moving through these areas on Saturday night and continue into Sunday morning. Fanning Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php