Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 213 PM EST Thu Dec 31 2015 Valid 00Z Fri Jan 01 2016 - 00Z Sun Jan 03 2016 ...Waning Flash Flood Threat In The Southeast While Flooding Remains For Many Rivers Throughout The Region And Along The Mississippi River... ...Dry And Very Cold Out West... The threat for heavy rain will diminish across the Southeast over the next 24 hours as a cold front tracks southeastward across the area. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms stretching from the Florida Peninsula to the Mid-Atlantic coast are forecast to wane in intensity through tonight as the cold front pushes better moisture away from the saturated soils of Alabama, northwestern Georgia and the higher elevations of North and South Carolina. A risk of locally heavy rain will remain across the central to eastern Gulf Coast into the day on Friday but many of these locations are at less risk of flash flooding. High pressure will be in charge over much of the nation to start off the new year, which will translate to mostly dry weather for most folks over the lower 48. There are a few exceptions to this though. One will be downwind of the Great Lakes where colder temperatures and several weak upper level disturbances will pass over the region, promoting lake effect snow showers. The heaviest snowfall accumulations look to be just east of Lake Ontario where a few locations in the Tug Hill Plateau may see a foot or more by the end of the weekend. Also, relatively warm/moist air overrunning cold air in Texas will develop rain showers by Friday morning, but given the cold surface temperatures, a wintry mix will be possible across northern sections of the precipitation shield. Despite the dry weather in the forecast, heavy rainfall during the past week over the center of the nation and the Southeast has sent many rivers and streams into flood stage. Several river gauges are in or will be approaching record levels across the central Mississippi River Valley and into portions of the Southeast. Out across the western U.S., cooler and drier weather will remain through Saturday, but a cold front nearing California may bring a few showers to the northern California coast by Saturday evening. Otherwise, many areas along and west of the Rockies will have temperatures averaging 10 to 20 degrees cooler than climatology with little to no precipitation forecast. Otto Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php