Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 240 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2016 Valid 00Z Mon Feb 01 2016 - 00Z Wed Feb 03 2016 ...Winter storm expected to bring heavy snow from the Rockies into the plains... ...Severe thunderstorms possible across portions of the Ohio, Mississippi, and Tennessee valleys on Tuesday... ...Above average temperatures expected through Tuesday for the eastern half of the U.S... A cold front will move across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys tonight and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Monday. Rain showers will accompany the front, with a few thunderstorms also possible tonight over the Tennessee valley. On the northern edge of the system, a mix of rain and snow is expected across portions of the Upper Great Lakes tonight. A mixture of rain, snow, and freezing rain will be possible across northern Maine Monday morning, before changing to all rain by afternoon. The major weather producer during the short range will be a vigorous low pressure system that will bring a significant winter storm to portions of the Rockies and the plains through Tuesday. This low pressure system will move across the southwestern U.S. tonight, reaching the Four Corners region by early Monday morning. The atmosphere will cool as the upper-level disturbances moves into the region, which will rapidly lower snow levels, resulting in widespread and potentially heavy snowfall across the Four Corners region and the central Rockies tonight. Snowfall amounts exceeding one foot are possible at the higher elevations of the Colorado Rockies, Wasatch, and the Mogollon Rim, with some areas possibly exceeding two feet. The system will begin to move into the plains on Monday, with widespread snow expected to spread across the central plains by Monday afternoon. Snow will spread into portions of the Upper Midwest Monday night, and into the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. The surface low will move northeastward, reaching the Midwest by Tuesday afternoon as the surface low crosses the Mississippi River. Heavy snow will be possible in association with this system from the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest through Tuesday. Snowfall amounts in excess of one foot are possible across portions of the central High Plains, with lighter amounts of 4 to 8 inches possible across the Upper Midwest through Tuesday afternoon. Additionally, as the surface low moves across the plains on Tuesday, a tightening pressure gradient will result in the potential for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph for some areas of the Midwest, which could result in blizzard conditions. Farther south, another aspect of this system will have potential impacts. A warm and unstable air mass will result in the potential for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday across portions of the lower and middle Mississippi valleys, as well as portions of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a slight to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for these areas. Temperatures will be above average across much of the eastern half of the nation ahead of this significant storm system. High temperatures on Monday will be 10 to 20 degrees above average for many areas. This will continue into Tuesday, with some areas of the Ohio valley as much as 20 to 25 degrees above average. Ryan Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php