Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 255 PM EST Tue Feb 23 2016 Valid 00Z Wed Feb 24 2016 - 00Z Fri Feb 26 2016 ...Strong to severe thunderstorms expected along the strong cold front moving through the Gulf Coast today and into Carolinas tomorrow... ...Heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding possible across the ear tern U.S... A rigorous system is currently developing along the western Gulf Coast states and will create a very active weather period for the eastern half of the country over the next few days. The surface low associated with this system will begin to lift into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valley later on this evening and will strengthen as it continues to move north over the next few days. A plethora of warm, moist air will be pulled in from the Gulf of Mexico and combining this with plenty of instability provided by upper level energy--severe weather will be a threat primarily for the Gulf Coast states through Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. For more information about the severe weather, see the Storm Prediction Center. Flash flooding will be an additional threat through the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Deep South, and Tennessee Valley through Wednesday morning. These strong storms could produce heavy rainfalls and with recent heavy rains over this area it could lead to flash flooding. By Wednesday, the line of storms will shift from the Gulf Coast region to the Southeast and the Carolinas. Once again, an abundance of moisture along with instability will be in place and severe weather will continue to be a threat. The area of biggest threat will be eastern North Carolina. Farther north, the potential for flash flooding will also shift to the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and New England region. The strong cold front will exit off the East Coast by late Wednesday night and most of the precipitation will diminish. However, light to moderate rain will continue across New England on Thursday as well as the potential for flooding. Windy and cooler weather will settle across regions from the southern Plains to the Northeast after the cold front has passed. In addition, weather will remain fairly quiet for the western half of the U.S. through Thursday. Fanning Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php