Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 342 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2016 Valid 00Z Mon Apr 11 2016 - 00Z Wed Apr 13 2016 ...Severe thunderstorms possible through Monday for the Southern Plains... ...Heavy rain and flash flooding possible across the Tennessee Valley on Monday... ...Numerous showers expected over the Desert Southwest and California... Temperatures across the eastern third of the U.S. will gradually warm over the next couple of days as the cold airmass trapped east of the Appalachians erodes. A low pressure system crossing the Central Plains and Midwest will allow a warm front to lift through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, while a cold front pushes through the Central/Southern Plains and Midwest. Numerous showers and thunderstorm are expected along and ahead of the advancing cold front from the Southern Plains to the Midwest. Conditions will be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop through Monday evening, particularly over the Southern Plains. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a sight risk for south Texas and from the Texas panhandle to southwest Missouri; with an enhanced risk for west-central Oklahoma through Monday morning. The area of concern shifts to the east on Tuesday, encompassing eastern Oklahoma and Texas, Arkansas, northern Louisiana and western Alabama. The enhanced risk area is centered over the juncture of the Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas borders. Any of these storms will have the potential to produce a lot of rain over a short duration. The threat for flash flooding will be elevated on Monday for portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Refer to the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook for additional information. The upper-level low near southern California continues to weaken and will be absorbed in the flow by early Monday morning. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are likely from California to the Rockies, with the greatest rainfall totals expected near the windward sides of the major mountain ranges; with snow likely at the highest elevations. Coastal areas in Washington will begin to receive showers by Monday afternoon as a cold front approaches the Pacific Northwest, spreading to higher elevations across the Intermountain West on Tuesday. Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php