Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 342 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016 Valid 00Z Mon May 30 2016 - 00Z Wed Jun 01 2016 ...Tropical Depression Bonnie and its associated moisture will ensure wet conditions from the Carolinas to lower New England... ...Severe weather will be possible over sections of the Great Plains the next couple of days... Recently downgraded Tropical Storm Bonnie is expected to remain rather slow-moving per the latest track/intensity guidance from the National Hurricane Center. Despite being in a weakened state, expect heavy downpours along with breezy conditions and choppy seas across the Carolinas. Additionally, tropical moisture extending northward off the Atlantic will focus a broader axis of moderate to heavy rainfall up through the Mid-Atlantic and lower New England. Much of the heavier activity is forecast to reside closer to the coast which is where much of the moisture should channel. This entire region can expect an increased risk of flash flooding given the continued precipitation the next couple of days. Split flow across the western half of the country will focus a pair of areas for active convection through Tuesday. First, a slow-moving upper low currently over Southern California will gradually migrate eastward during the next two days. In advance of this feature, enhanced low-level convergence along a north-south oriented dry line will be the site for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some of these may be severe, particularly over the western half of Texas where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted in the latest outlooks. Further, the slow-moving nature of these cells may also enhance the flash flood risk. Farther north, amplified flow within the northern branch of the jet stream will bring a strengthening upper low into the Northern Rockies by Monday evening. As the accompanying cold front sweeps through the Central/Northern Plains on Monday/Tuesday, heavy rainfall will spread eastward with the accompanied threats of severe weather and flash flooding being possible. In its wake, much cooler air will arrive which is expected to bring temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below average for late May. Meanwhile, a building ridge along the West Coast should ensure much warmer conditions with highs in the 90s across much of the region on Tuesday. Rubin-Oster Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php