Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 141 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2016 Valid 12Z Sat Jun 04 2016 - 12Z Mon Jun 06 2016 ...Heavy rain likely over the western and central Gulf Coast... ...Enhanced risk of severe weather Sunday across portions of Mid Atlantic... ...Tropical Depression Bonnie is forecast to weaken as it moves out over the Western Atlantic... A dynamic storm system will move through the northern and central Plains over the next few days with the southern flank of the cold front pushing into the southern Plains and high pressure builds in along the Rockies this weekend. This storm will deepen over the Great Lakes and the upper level pattern will begin to amplify as it moves eastward. This amplification will allow the upper low affecting the southern Plains to begin lifting out of the region by the end of the period and prime the portions of the eastern U.S. for severe weather. Before that time, the upper low will continue to draw tropical moisture into Texas and the central Gulf Coast. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to focus along the central and western Gulf Coast under the influence of the upper low. A moderate risk of excessive rainfall has been issued for portions of the central and western Gulf Coast for Saturday. Much of the region is experiencing very saturated soil conditions after several days of heavy rainfall and more rainfall could trigger flash flooding. With the amplification of the upper level pattern, broad deep southerly flow will develop across the eastern U.S. ahead of the upper level low. A warm and humid air mass will build northward allowing showers and thunderstorms to break out Saturday afternoon from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward toward the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. By Sunday, a warm and humid air mass entrenched across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast interacting with strengthening upper level dynamics will set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms developing Sunday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has identified portions of the Mid Atlantic as having an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms, with an area of slight risk stretching southward into eastern Georgia. Tropical Depression Bonnie will continue tracking out to sea and is expected to weaken to a post-tropical cyclone/remnant low by early Saturday morning. Little additional rainfall is expected. See the National Hurricane Center web page for more information. Krekeler Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php