Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 348 PM EDT Sat Jun 04 2016 Valid 00Z Sun Jun 05 2016 - 00Z Tue Jun 07 2016 ...Heavy rain likely over the western and central Gulf Coast, with heavy rain possible from the Deep South to the central Appalachians... ...Enhanced risk of severe weather Sunday across portions of Mid Atlantic and Southeast... ...Tropical Depression Bonnie will continue to weaken as it moves further into the Western Atlantic... The low pressure system tracking through the Upper Midwest/Middle Mississippi valley will strengthen as it moves eastward. As the surface low deepens over the Great Lakes the upper level pattern will begin to amplify - this will allow the upper low affecting the southern Plains to lift out of the region and prime portions of the eastern U.S. for severe weather. Tropical moisture will continue to pump into the Texas and central Gulf Coast before the low begins to lift out. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to focus along the central and western Gulf Coast and a moderate risk of excessive rainfall has been issued for portions of the central and western Gulf Coast through Sunday. Much of the region is experiencing very saturated soil conditions after several days of heavy rainfall and any additional rainfall could trigger flash flooding. Showers and thunderstorms will persist along and ahead a line from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to southern Texas through Tuesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has identified areas east of the Appalachians to have the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms on Sunday. Much of the Mid-Atlantic region has a slight risk, with an enhanced risk encompassing southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, eastern Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Tropical Depression Bonnie, located north of Bermuda, will continue tracking to the east and is forecast to weaken to a remnant low tonight. See the National Hurricane Center web page for more information. Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php