Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Mon Jul 04 2016 Valid 00Z Tue Jul 05 2016 - 00Z Thu Jul 07 2016 ...Flash flooding and severe weather possible for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states on Monday... ...Persistent heat and humidity will remain the story from Texas to the Carolinas the next few days... ...Increasing threat for heavy rains and strong to severe thunderstorms expected to increase over the Upper Mississippi valley... Showers and thunderstorms have developed along the frontal boundary that is slowly surging northward through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states today. The greatest threat for flash flooding will span from Kentucky to West Virginia - this area is expected to have abundant low-level moisture feeding the convection. By Tuesday... the chance for any widespread heavy rains or severe storms should diminish as the surface wave lifts away from the Mid-Atlantic coast. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of the central/northern Plains and Midwest/Upper Midwest through Wednesday as a low pressure system tracks eastward toward the Great Lakes region. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe weather from Kansas to Wisconsin on Tuesday- with an enhanced threat focused over much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Heavy rainfall over southern Minnesota may lead to flash flooding. Cooler conditions will continue across the Pacific Northwest and northern High Plains as an upper-level trough digs into the Northwest region. A cold front at the leading edge of height falls could trigger showers and thunderstorms while pushing through the north central U.S. early this week...with the potential for heavy rains and strong to severe storms once the boundary reaches the Upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A persistent ridge anchored over the southern tier will keep warm and muggy conditions from Texas to the Southeast. Heat advisories have been issued for portions of the southern Plains...Lower Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas. A combination of high temperatures and dew points may lead to heat indices in the triple digit. Enough weakness in the ridge aloft should allow for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across the central Gulf Coast states. Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php