Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 403 PM EDT Mon Aug 01 2016 Valid 00Z Tue Aug 02 2016 - 00Z Thu Aug 04 2016 ...Severe thunderstorms possible through Tuesday morning across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest... ...Heavy rain and flash flooding possible for Mississippi valley and portions of the Northeast... ...Heavy rain could also lead to flash flooding for the Southwest... A strong front will continue moving eastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest over the next few days. This will fire off convection across North Dakota and begin moving across Minnesota by Tuesday. A risk of severe thunderstorms is possible with this convection through Tuesday morning, with a marginal risk for the Upper Midwest region on Tuesday. Check the products from Storm Prediction Center for more information. Meanwhile, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur from the northern Plains/Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast for the next few days. A frontal boundary is draped across these regions and will act as a focal point for setting off convection, initially farther west in the Upper Midwest and Mississippi Valley and will propagate eastward across the Tennessee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate to heavy rain can be expected especially Monday night and into Tuesday for the Northeast, which could lead to flash flooding. By Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, the frontal boundary will move toward and stall over the Carolinas and will bring that area continuous rounds of convection, as the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast dries out. Monsoonal moisture will continue to surge across the Desert Southwest throughout the short term period. Diurnal heating and terrain will help convection pop up across the region--with most of the coverage occurring in the late afternoon/early evening hours. Some of the locally heavy rainfall could yield to flooding issues. The bulk of the heavy rainfall is expected to occur in southern Arizona. The Pacific Northwest will have light to moderate showers move across the region by Tuesday morning and will expand across the region throughout the day. By Tuesday evening, most of the activity will move into southern Canada. Farther east, typical summertime sea breeze thunderstorms will fire off in the afternoon across the central and eastern Gulf coast region. Fanning Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php