Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 343 PM EDT Tue Aug 09 2016 Valid 00Z Wed Aug 10 2016 - 00Z Fri Aug 12 2016 ...Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms possible from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest... ...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall to continue across the central Gulf Coast states... ...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico... A frontal boundary moving through the northern tier states will become the focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms across much of the northern High Plains and Plains states and into the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest. Severe weather is possible with some of these storms and the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a slight risk from the northern High Plains to the upper Mississippi Valley through Wednesday, with a marginal risk along the cold front as it drops into the central Plains and middle Mississippi Valley by Thursday. WPC also has slight risks for excessive rainfall/flash flooding from the northern Plains to the upper Great Lakes through Thursday, with a moderate risk possible on Wednesday across central Minnesota as moisture pooling around a surface low interacts with a warm front lifting northward through the state. An area of low pressure lingering along the central Gulf Coast will continue to feed tropical moisture into the region over the next several days. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be a concern from the Florida panhandle to eastern Louisiana as the low retrogrades slowly westward Wednesday and Thursday. Farther north, disturbances in the upper levels keeps showers and thunderstorms in the forecast across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and into the Northeast throughout the forecast period. Moisture streaming into the Southwest states ahead of Tropical Depression Javier keeps showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through Thursday. The most organized activity should be mainly diurnally driven occurring during peak daytime heating hours. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible, with flood and flash flood watches in effect across much of southern and central Arizona and western New Mexico. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php