Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 344 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2016 Valid 00Z Thu Aug 11 2016 - 00Z Sat Aug 13 2016 ...Severe weather and flash flooding possible from the northern Plains to the upper Midwest... ...Heavy rainfall continues across the central Gulf Coast states... ...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible across Arizona and New Mexico through tonight... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible through tomorrow from the northern Plains to the upper Great Lakes along a frontal boundary lifting through the northern tier states. Conditions should be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop, with heavy rainfall likely. WPC has highlighted a slight to moderate risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding this evening across the eastern Dakotas...much of Minnesota, and northwest Wisconsin. By Thursday and into Friday, as the cold front moves into the central Plains, showers and thunderstorms should spread south and eastward into the central Plains and the Midwest. Once again, strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding should be a threat. A lingering area of low pressure across the central Gulf Coast states will continue to feed tropical moisture into the Deep South states over the next couple of days. The heaviest and most organized of the activity should focus near the coast where heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be a threat from eastern Louisiana to the western Florida panhandle. Moisture streaming northward around an upper ridge anchored over the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic states keeps wet conditions in the forecast from the Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast through Friday as well. Monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will continue to generate showers and storms across the Southwestern states and into the Rockies and high Plains. Localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding is possible, especially across Arizona and New Mexico this evening in association with remnant moisture from what was tropical cyclone Javier. Flash flood watches remain in effect for this region through late tonight. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php