Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2016 Valid 00Z Wed Aug 17 2016 - 00Z Fri Aug 19 2016 ...Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic over the next few days... ...Heavy rainfall and a risk of severe storms possible in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Thursday... The quasi-stationary front that has been draped over the Mississippi Valley and southern Plains will slowly lift to the north and east over the next few days. In the meantime, expect a constant stream of showers and thunderstorms along and east of the boundary. The main surface low will continue moving across the Great Lakes tonight and into interior New England by Wednesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall will occur along the surface low as it makes its eastward trek; most of New England will be wet during the day on Wednesday and most of the activity will taper off by Wednesday night. Farther south, the convection will continue from the southern Plains through the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley over the next few days. Warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico combined with the quasi-stationary front acting as a focal point for convection will maintain continuous rounds of showers and thunderstorms for these regions. Heaviest rainfall on Tuesday night and into Wednesday will concentrate in south central/southeast Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. There is a risk of excessive rainfall due to already soaked soils receiving additional rainfall--see the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more information. By Wednesday, the heaviest activity will shift west into Texas as lighter rainfall amounts can be expected in the lower Mississippi Valley. A strong cold front will begin to drop across the Intermountain West and northern Plains by Thursday morning and will continue moving south and east throughout the day. Convection will fire off along and ahead of the boundary--and there is a risk of severe thunderstorms. For more information, see the Storm Prediction Center. In addition, diurnal heating will also help set off convection across the Four Corners especially along the terrain--with the most activity occurring during the late afternoon/evening hours. Fanning Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php