Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 Valid 00Z Sun Sep 25 2016 - 00Z Tue Sep 27 2016 ...Strong storm system affects the northern plains and Upper Midwest... ...Cooler temperatures with lower humidity air for the eastern U.S. this weekend... ...Heavy rainfall expected across Texas... Cool, dry air is spreading southward through the Mid-Atlantic behind an advancing cold front. Surface high pressure that is building in behind the front will keep the airmass in place for a couple days - Autumn-like temperatures are expected across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. However, the Deep South and Gulf Coast region will continue to have higher temperatures and humidity - the front is forecast to stall then dissipate over the Carolinas by Monday. A surface low lifting northeast through the High Plains/southern Canada will drag a cold front through the central U.S. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico transporting northward into central Canada will interact with this system, resulting in scattered to widespread precipitation from Mexican Plateau through the Plains states and into the south-central Provinces of Canada. Accumulating snow is expected for the higher peaks from northern Utah to Montana through tonight. Moderate to heavy rainfall is likely from eastern Wyoming to western North Dakota as the surface low lifts slowly to the northeast. Breezy conditions can also be expected. Much colder air will surge in with the frontal passage. For Texas, possibly including extreme southeast New Mexico, a heavy rainfall event is forecast to materialize across central and western portions of the state by Sunday as a slow moving front intercepts a rich flow of moisture surging north from the western Gulf of Mexico. An upper level low to the west will help provide lift in addition to the front to generate widespread rainfall. Accumulations of 2 to 5 inches will be common, with isolated areas near 7 inches will be possible over the next 3 days. A moderate risk of flash flooding will continue through Monday morning, with a slight risk through Tuesday morning. Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php