Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 309 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 Valid 12Z Sun Sep 25 2016 - 12Z Tue Sep 27 2016 ...Cooler temperatures with lower humidity for the northeastern states... ...Heavy rain and thunderstorms expected across Texas... Refreshing changes in the weather pattern have arrived for much of the eastern U.S., including the Mid-Atlantic region and the Northeast. A large surface high over Quebec will deliver a quality fall-like airmass from Virginia and points northward through Monday, after which a brief warm-up ensues before the next cold front arrives by Tuesday. The Deep South and Southeast U.S. are expected to remain rather warm and humid for this time of year with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. An occluded surface low lifting northeast into southern Canada will bring a cold front across the central U.S. that is eventually expected to reach the East Coast. Scattered to widespread precipitation is expected ahead of the front. The heaviest rainfall is likely for Texas, where a heavy rainfall event is forecast to materialize across central and western portions of the state on Sunday as a slow moving front intercepts a rich flow of moisture surging north from the western Gulf of Mexico. An upper level low to the west will help provide lift in addition to the front to generate widespread rainfall. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be common, with isolated amounts on the order of 6 inches possible in some locales. A moderate risk of flash flooding will continue through Monday morning, with a slight risk lasting through Tuesday morning. Hamrick Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php