Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 234 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Valid 00Z Fri Feb 17 2017 - 00Z Sun Feb 19 2017 ...Strong storm system to affect California... ...Quieter weather pattern is expected over most of the nation... Rain and mountain snow will continue across much of the western U.S. as a Pacific cold front pushes inland across the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Heavy snow is likely for the higher elevations of the Cascades and the northern Rockies through Friday as the moisture moves inland. The main weather event that will make headlines over the next few days will be a deep upper level trough that will generate a strong occluded surface low which will head towards California through Friday. Expect the surface low to make landfall by Friday afternoon/evening, with best precipitation moving in by Friday morning. Heavy rainfall is expected for the coastal areas and the nearby mountains, with some locations getting in excess of 4 inches of rainfall by Saturday morning thanks to the deep surge of subtropical moisture being directed towards the region. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across much of California and much of the Pacific Northwest given the amount of rain expected, as well as warming temperatures leading to snow melt across the region. Some ongoing lake effect snow showers downwind of the Great Lakes will continue to taper off through this evening as winds shift to a more southerly direction, eliminating best fetch and gradually warming the airmass. This same southerly flow may lead to some rain showers along the Gulf Coast into the first part of the weekend. Otherwise, sunny to partly cloudy conditions are expected across much of the central and eastern U.S. over the next few days as high pressure governs the overall weather pattern there. Warmer conditions are also expected in time for the weekend for many areas. Wix Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php