Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 352 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Valid 00Z Mon Feb 20 2017 - 00Z Wed Feb 22 2017 ...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains... ...Heavy snow possible for the Sierras, Sawtooth, and Wind River Mtns/Absaroka Range... ...Heavy rain possible for portions of Northern/Central California and Pacific Northwest... ...Heavy rain possible for portions Western/Central Gulf Coast... A deep upper-level trough over the Central/Southern Rockies will form a new closed upper-level low over the Western Gulf Coast by Tuesday. The storm will produce snow and lower elevation rain over parts of the Central/Southern Rockies and the Southwest will come to an end by Monday morning. In addition, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the Southern/Central Plains and extending into the Great Lakes by Monday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern Plains by Sunday evening that will expand into parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley by Monday morning. By Monday evening, the showers and thunderstorms will withdraw to Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Central Gulf Coast by Tuesday. Overnight Monday, rain will develop over parts of the Tennessee Valley. The system that brought widespread heavy precipitation to California and portions of the Southwest will continue to weaken as it tracks eastward into the Central/Southern High Plains today and into Monday. Rain and higher elevation snow is forecast for parts of California, the Great Basin and Southwest ending over most of California this morning and will expand into the Central/Southern Plains, waning by Monday. Farther north, multiple waves embedded within the upper-level low will move into the Northwest and Intermountain West/Northern Rockies early and will aid in producing rain and higher elevation snow from the Coast into parts of the Northern Rockies. Heavy snow will be possible for some of the higher elevations of the Cascades, Sierras, Sawtooth, the Mogollon Rim and Central Rockies. A plume of moisture will stream into California bringing another round of heavy rainfall to portions of central California. Rain and higher elevation snow will develop over parts of Central/Southern California. As the upper-level low moves eastward, circulation around the low will aid in streaming moisture into Eastern Texas that will move northward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop over parts of the Western Gulf Coast and will expand northward into the central U.S. this afternoon. Some of the storms over eastern Texas may become severe this afternoon. Refer to the Storm Prediction Center webpage for addition information on the threat for severe weather. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php