Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 251 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 Valid 00Z Wed Mar 01 2017 - 00Z Fri Mar 03 2017 ...Severe weather likely across portions of the central and eastern U.S.... ...Record warmth expected from the Midwest to the East Coast... ...Enhanced wildfire danger across the southern Rockies to the southern Plains today... Persistent warm and dry conditions across the Southern Plains and Midwest have increased the risk for wildfires to spread. With strong gusty winds expected to continue into the evening, much of New Mexico, western Texas/ Oklahoma and southern Kansas have high wind warnings and/or red flag warnings in effect through tonight. Favorable conditions for strong to severe thunderstorm development will be present near from the ArkLaTex into the Ohio valley ahead of an advancing cold front. Tornadoes, large hail, damaging straight line winds and flash flooding will all be possible along this corridor-- with the best chances over the Mid-Mississippi valley/Ohio valley today. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted locations from central Arkansas to much of Indiana with an enhanced risk of severe storms -- with a moderate risk encompassing eastern Missouri, Illinois and southern Indiana for through tonight. As the strong cold front advances east on Wednesday, the anomalously warm temperatures and severe weather threat will shift to the East, affecting locations from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Temperatures are forecast to break daily high temperature records in advance of the cold front. Temperatures will only fall to near average behind the cold front as the very cold air is locked up in northern Canada for the time being. Portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and into the northern Great Lakes region will have a round of light to moderate snow beginning late tonight. As cold air surges into the region rain is forecast to transition to snow. Accumulations should are expected from southern Wisconsin into Michigan -- storm totals will largely be less than 6 inches through Thursday morning. Much of the West Coast will see a break from precipitation through the middle of the week. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side over the next few days, with many location observing near to slightly below seasonal averages for early March. Next possible round of precipitation will be the end of the week. Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php