Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 353 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Valid 00Z Fri Mar 24 2017 - 00Z Sun Mar 26 2017 ...Severe weather possible for the Southern/Central High Plains and Lower Mississippi valley through Friday... ...Prime conditions for the spread of wildfires across the Southern/Central High Plains... ...Increasingly active and wet pattern for northern California up to the Pacific Northwest coast and east to the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West... A robust surface low pressure system is currently moving into the Central Plains. This is resulting in a deep pull of warm moist unstable air from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the system, with a strong cold front extending southward from the surface low providing ample lift. The combination of these two factors is providing the necessary fuel for rain and thunderstorms across much of the southern and Central Plains this afternoon evening, moving eastward into the Mississippi Valley by Friday. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, especially during the peak heating of the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a portion of the high plains in a Slight Risk area for severe weather through tonight, with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. This slight risk area shifts eastward, encompassing much of the southwestern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley for Friday and Saturday. Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center website for more information. Northeast of the low, a warm front will be the epicenter for widespread rain, possibly mixing with some wintry precipitation across the Great Lakes and Northeast over the next couple of days. Meanwhile, on the northwest side of the low pressure system, snow is expected to continue across the higher terrain of the Central Rockies tonight, before tapering off as the system progresses eastward during the day Friday. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect through Friday morning for these areas. And on the west and southwest side of the cold front, strong winds are in place. This is coupling with a very dry airmass, creating favorable conditions for wildfires to rapidly spread -- numerous counties from southwest Wyoming southward to New Mexico and western Texas have high wind and red flag warnings in effect. Across the west, a deep upper trough will spread moderate to locally heavy precipitation from coastal Central California northward to the Canadian border over the next couple of days, before moving inland. As usual, orographics will play a key role in placement of the more concentrated activity. The heaviest amounts may be across the Siskiyou and Shasta Ranges where the onshore flow and vertical motions will be strongest. Precipitation will primarily fall as rain, changing over to snow in the highest elevations. Locations above 5,000 feet in southern Washington and far northern California could see snow in excess of 8 inches tonight into tomorrow. A winter storm watch is in effect for the Sierra Nevadas where up to 2 feet of snow could fall on the highest peaks during this time. Wix/Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php